UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer prices release confirmed that deflation is in the rear-view mirror, but there aren’t yet any signs which will worry the MPC. 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan data confirm economy is in meltdown Venezuela’s central bank has released economic data for the first time since 2014 and the figures are predictably horrific. With oil prices now languishing below $30pb, and the country’s political... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Nov.) The strong rise in Peruvian economic activity in November gives the first clear sign that the economy picked-up in the final quarter of last year. As such, it looks like GDP probably grew by around 3... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Lower oil prices won’t reverse inflation’s return December’s consumer prices figures should confirm that the UK’s brief period of deflation is over, by showing the second consecutive month of positive CPI inflation. What’s more, the recent further... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the impact of falling oil prices As India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, the continued slide in global oil prices should ensure that the improvement in the current account position is sustained. Domestically, the... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower inflation outlook to keep the MPC on hold for a while The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today, for the 82nd month in a row, was unsurprising given the recent fall-back in the oil price and renewed market concerns about the health... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in December, but the recent wave of subsidy cuts means that it is likely to edge higher over the coming months. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in Bangladesh likely to be a one-off Bangladesh Bank has today cut its policy rates for the first time since 2013 to give the economy a further lift. Although the central bank has become more confident of meeting its inflation target... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in December and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further, returning to positive territory early this year. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China holds the key to regional recovery Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although France’s headline inflation rate edged up in December, the big picture is that price pressures in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy remain very weak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
