Global Inflation Watch Inflation set to rebound An increase in headline inflation is now “baked in the cake” for most economies. The effects of last year’s oil price slump are set to drop out of the annual comparison in the coming months and fears... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) UK inflation is still bouncing around zero and is likely to remain there for most of the rest of this year. This period of virtually no inflation is a good thing for the UK, as it is giving a welcome... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of consumer price inflation in August should be the clinching factor in determining whether or not the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates at its meeting later this month. 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana hikes rates amid currency concerns The surprise 100bp rate hike, to 25.0%, by the Bank of Ghana today appears to have been aimed at shoring up the cedi, particularly in light of the US FOMC meeting later this week. We expect monetary... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in August to its lowest rate since the series began. The WPI rate may not have as much of a bearing on policymaking as the CPI rate, but the fact that it has... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank has lost sight of the medium term The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) responded to the latest fall in headline inflation by cutting interest rates again over the weekend. The SBP’s aggressive series of rate cuts during the last year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional rate cut still seems like a good bet The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Conf. (Sep.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) Although the slump in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to a 12-month low of 85.7 in September, from 91.9, left it well below the consensus forecast at 91.1 it was almost exactly in... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker currencies part of the solution, not the problem The economic outlook for Latin America remains pretty gloomy. Weaker growth in China and lower global commodity prices will depress export revenues and, as incomes fall, cause domestic demand to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to hold rates amid balancing act The decision to keep interest rates on hold today at 3.25% reflects the difficult balancing act facing the Malaysian central bank (BNM) as it continues to grapple with the problems caused by slowing... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: “Good” deflation about to return We expect deflation to have returned in August; indeed, inflation is likely to remain below zero for most of the rest of this year. But it is not something to worry about as its main effect will be to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Brazil inflation from 9.6% y/y in July to 9.5% y/y in August should mark the start of a steady decline over the coming months. However, as the minutes from last week’s COPOM meeting (also... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Global risks keep rates on hold again Although the MPC kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today, it left its options open – saying that recent events had not altered its central view for the UK economy, while conceding an increase in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
