Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off takes its toll on Russia and Turkey The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the hardest hit EM currencies this quarter and this has already started to feed through into the real economy. Inflation is on the rise (again)... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The unchanged 1.3% annual headline inflation rate in August and the drop in core inflation to 2.1%, from 2.4%, are in line with the Bank of Canada’s assumptions, so they won’t change its neutral view... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in spending temporarily slows Households are continuing to see substantial increases in their purchasing power. Annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) picked up from 2.8% to 3.2% in July, well above that... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays rate hike yet again Despite raising its GDP growth and core inflation forecasts for this year and lowering its unemployment rate forecast for this year, the Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI inflation in August was partly due to the renewed decline in gasoline prices, but even core prices increased by only 0.1% m/m, suggesting that underlying inflation... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug.) Deflation in Poland eased a little last month as a fall in energy inflation was more than offset by strengthening food inflation. We expect the headline rate to return to positive territory in the... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
