Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan remains too optimistic about inflation While there are good reasons to believe that inflation will continue to recover in coming months, the Bank of Japan’s most recent forecasts from January are far too optimistic. Downward revisions to... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the surge in employment a sign of things to come? We doubt that the surge in Australian employment in March will mark the beginning of a sustained rebound in employment growth. Indeed, a deeper dive into the latest employment trends in different... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose again in March, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow up last week’s hike to the... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Australia won’t benefit much from global recovery The latest data suggest that we are right to be more downbeat than most on the outlook for Australia this year but more upbeat than most on the prospects for New Zealand. While both economies will... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price inflation remained tepid last month, suggesting that there was more to the drop in February than just seasonal factors. Producer price inflation remains rapid but has begun to come off... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price expectations too weak to reach 2% inflation The labour market continues to tighten and firms are reporting the most severe capacity shortages in years. Underlying inflation is therefore set to recover after approaching zero at the start of this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s unchanged CPI inflation rate is just a temporary pause in an upward trend which will probably take inflation to just over 3% later this year. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) March’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provides further evidence that higher inflation is starting to slow growth in household spending. But the timing of Easter makes it hard to draw any strong conclusions... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) Turkey’s current account deficit remained wide in February, but there are some encouraging signs that the boost to competitiveness from the weak lira may already be having a positive effect. Elsewhere... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation rose further in March, to 30.9% y/y, but we think it’s close to peaking and the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy further. Indeed, as inflation starts to fall back... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s small rise in the Norges Bank’s preferred measure of inflation was probably just a blip. Indeed, we think that inflation will fall to about 1.0% later this year, prompting the central bank to... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) & Turkey Ind. Production (Feb.) The further rise in Czech inflation (both headline and core) last month is, with the koruna cap now at an end, likely to shift attention to the timing of the first interest rate hike. For our part, we... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan benefit from higher inflation? Deflation has not done as much damage to Japan’s economy as is often thought and, correspondingly, a return to inflation is unlikely to deliver major benefits for now. However, we remain convinced... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
