Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) May’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation primarily reflected stronger energy and food inflation. But with domestic inflationary pressure building, we continue to think the Riksbank will raise rates in... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in May and looks set to remain elevated suggests that the RBI will follow up this month... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) The rise in oil prices has brought the recent downward trend in CPI inflation to a halt. But we doubt it will be too long before inflation starts to drift down again. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will surging interest rates sink the economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The increase in headline inflation to a six-year high of 2.8% in May is partly due to the rally in energy prices, but it is also reflects another solid monthly gain in core CPI, which will keep the... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation rose to a four-month high in May and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last week’s hike in the repo rate with further... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 2% inflation target remains elusive Headline inflation has been falling recently as the impact of the short-lived spike in food prices over the winter has reversed. Energy inflation has continued to slow as utility bills are rising less... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume later this year A further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month has strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts. But policymakers seem hesitant to loosen policy against the backdrop of upcoming subsidy... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (May) May’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until early 2019 before raising... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2018) & Czech CPI (May) The Turkish economy grew by a faster-than-expected 7.4% y/y in Q1 but, crucially, this predates the recent financial market turmoil. An abrupt slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) Brazilian inflation ticked up from 2.8% y/y in April to 2.9% in May, due in part to the recent truck drivers’ strike, which has led to supply disruptions. And while the markets have responded to the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation continued to fall in May, and while the markets have responded to the recent drop in the peso against the dollar by pricing in a 25bp hike at this month’s policy meeting, we’re... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated in May, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core inflation will also have remained elevated, and this is likely to be the case for... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
