Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch A wilting desire to raise interest rates An apparent wilting desire to raise interest rates means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd July and probably won’t raise rates... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly weak inflation and retail sales data released today support our view that the Bank of Canada will stand pat at next month’s policy meeting, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) The manufacturing PMI was little changed in June and still points to robust gains in industrial output. And the recent surge in crude oil prices is boosting price pressures. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) While a pick-up in energy and fresh food prices lifted inflation in May, underlying inflation weakened further and remains far below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drop in airfares inflation a measurement problem The recent drop in airfare inflation has been a small drag on core inflation and, unlike last year’s fall in wireless telephone service prices, appears to be a genuine measurement problem. Underlying... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Headwinds building The latest hard activity figures suggest that EM growth held up well going into Q2, but that headwinds to the macroeconomic outlook are starting to build. The most recent trade figure show that EM... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wage growth generally still subdued Given the strength of their labour markets, wage inflation is likely to pick up a bit in the US, UK and, to a lesser extent, the euro-zone and Japan over the coming quarters. But as Jerome Powell... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation eased slightly in May, which should reduce speculation that the SARB will hike rates in the coming months. We think that policymakers will keep rates on hold, before cutting in... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Inflation to be contained this year Inflation in Uganda will accelerate over the coming months, but remain below the highs recorded last year. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold this year, but restart their easing cycle in... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation outlook is benign Inflation in most major advanced economies is likely to trend towards 2% over the next couple of years. Despite record-low unemployment rates, wage inflation is likely to remain fairly weak in most... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
