India Economics Update RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation Having previously shown that it was willing to prioritise growth even at the risk of missing targets for inflation, the RBI’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold despite the downside risks... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter is unlikely to mark the start of a recession as GDP will probably rebound in the fourth quarter. Even so, it highlights that the economy is not strong... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Year ending on a positive note After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain in Goldilocks zone in 2017 Despite widespread concerns about deflation at the start of this year, consumer price inflation has averaged 2% in the first ten months of 2016, up from 1.4% in 2015. We expect headline inflation to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.8% y/y, won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to resume its easing cycle at the rate-setting meeting next week. Nonetheless, we think the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Nov.) While November’s fall in Swiss inflation was mainly due to energy effects, the weakness of core inflation will do little to ease fears that the economy may be experiencing a sustained bout of damaging... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth picked up marginally in October but remained very weak. While wages are rising more strongly allowing for falling working hours, the tight labour market has yet to create noticeable cost... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4 Both households and businesses appear to have been undeterred by Brexit uncertainty in Q3. What’s more, the latest business surveys suggest that the economy will turn in another solid performance in... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The surprise fall in Turkish inflation in November means that, at the margin, it looks less likely that the MPC will follow up last month’s interest rate hike with another this month. Nonetheless... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) While consumer sentiment worsened in November, household inflation expectations seem to have turned the corner. 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness to feed inflation rebound The recent weakening of the yen will lift headline inflation by around 0.5 percentage points in coming months and further gains are likely if, as we have been forecasting for a while, the yen weakens... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Dealing with demonetisation The liquidity-draining measures that were eventually introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deal with the rush of cash entering the banking system after the demonetisation announcement have... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.) The surprise acceleration of inflation in Kenya and Uganda raises a risk to our view that both countries central banks will loosen policy. But we expect that rates will still fall. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small pick-up in euro-zone headline inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from announcing further policy stimulus next week. Indeed, underlying price pressures remain subdued and inflation... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
