UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The rise in CPI inflation is part of an upward trend which will see inflation peak at about 3% in early 2018. However, we don’t think it will trouble the MPC too much. 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook On course for weakest growth since the global financial crisis The Middle East & North Africa region will struggle again next year, recording its weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis in 2009. Fiscal policy will have to be tightened in most... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in November, coming on the back of less hawkish communications from policymakers in recent weeks, make it more likely that COPOM will step up... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hint at 2017 rate cut The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 15th December. Indeed, in October, the Bank repeated its message that “the key policy rate would most likely... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from the upcoming Shunto? We expect the upcoming spring wage negotiations to result in base pay hikes of only 0.5% or so, which would be broadly in line with the increase agreed upon this year. Even with output per employee... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term We think that consumer price inflation dropped in November as the government’s demonetisation measures are likely to have led to some price discounting. However, demonetisation could boost inflation... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer and producer price inflation both accelerated last month. Rather than exporting deflation as many had previously feared, China is now a source of global inflationary pressure. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in November, from 3.1% y/y in October, and it’s unlikely to stop there. We expect the headline rate to climb above the top-end of the central bank’s 2-4% target... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy weathering political risks The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation surged to 19.4% y/y in November following the float and subsequent 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar, as well as fresh subsidy cuts. Inflation looks set to rise even... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) GDP growth wasn’t quite as strong last quarter as initially reported, but this was more than offset by upward revisions to previous quarters. Spare capacity is narrowing and we still expect the Bank... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Decent economic growth but challenges lie ahead The Nordic and Swiss economies generally recorded positive growth in Q3 and look set to do so again in Q4. But with growth in their main trading partner, the euro-zone, set to slow and a number of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small uptick in Chilean inflation in November is likely to prove temporary and we expect the headline rate to fall further below the central bank’s target by early next year. Following more... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
