Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank loosens while Norges Bank stands pat In the past month, central bank meetings have highlighted contrasts in the responses of policymakers towards inflation. In Sweden, inflation has been on an upward trend recently and is close to the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank likely to bring more surprises for markets In a recent Quick Take audio recording (available here), we discussed why the Central Bank of Russia had caught the markets (but not us) off guard at its last two meetings and why interest rates are... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.) The first estimate of German Q1 GDP showed that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year. But April’s inflation data confirmed that, ignoring Easter timing effects, underlying price... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation really rising? There is a widespread view that the world is in a period of “reflation” in which both economic activity and inflation are picking up. But there is little or no evidence of a sustained increase in... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect May’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee is in no hurry to raise interest rates. But it also lent some support to our view that it will begin to tighten... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rate cut on the cards Following the sharp drop in the Icelandic króna after the lifting of capital controls in March, we pushed back our forecast for an Icelandic interest rate cut from May to August. But since the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp divergence in Swiss and Swedish inflation in April supports our views that the Swiss National Bank will need to keep monetary policy loose for a long time to come but that Sweden’s Riksbank... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp decline in Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation has paused over the past three months, but it should soon resume. We think that it will fall to 1.0% later in the year, and remain well below the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.5% y/y, was driven entirely by stronger food price pressures. We think inflation is now close to a peak and today’s figures are unlikely to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up last month but broad price pressures still appear fairly subdued. Meanwhile, the rapid rise in producer price inflation since late last year is now reversing, thanks... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in April and, with inflation expectations starting to tick up again, we think the central bank is likely to opt for another 25bp hike in its policy interest rate... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The first fall in labour cash earnings since last May underlines the challenges the Bank of Japan is facing in lifting inflation to 2%. With wages growing no faster than labour productivity, much... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Chilean inflation remained weak at 2.7% y/y in April, but even so, with the economy finally showing tentative signs of picking up, the central bank is likely to pause its easing cycle at next week’s... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but outlook benign We think headline inflation will have risen in April and expect a further pick-up over the next few months. But price pressures should remain contained over the course of this year. Meanwhile, the... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We are not too worried about the drop in consumer confidence in April as the index remains near multi-year highs. What’s more, the survey remains consistent with a rebound in durable goods consumption... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the low level of inflation expectations a concern? The stubbornly-low level of inflation expectations, even as actual inflation has been trending higher, could become a troublesome issue for the Fed. On some measures, household inflation expectations... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
