Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (May) May’s declines in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate fell back from the ECB’s target of close to 2%. With core inflation subdued across the region, we doubt... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes remain off the agenda While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The main inflation gauges all edged up in April and should climb further in coming months. But with the boost from higher energy prices set to fizzle out in the second half of the year, inflation will... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Politics takes centre stage (again) The economic data from Latin America have continued to improve over the past month, but this has been overshadowed by developments on the political front. The scandal that has engulfed Brazil’s... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB tighten prematurely again? The ECB is edging towards ending asset purchases and raising interest rates. But there are good reasons to think that it won’t repeat the mistake that it made in 2011 of tightening policy too soon. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Mexican inflation continued its upward trend in the first half of May, hitting an eight-year high of 6.2% y/y, but the recent stability of the peso means it probably doesn’t have much further to rise. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The continued fall of South African inflation – which dropped to 5.3% y/y in April – supports our view that the Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate later this year. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Household sector is starting to falter There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Much greater capacity shortages needed to lift inflation Japan is on the longest streak of growth in more than a decade. But the lesson of the last growth spurt is that capacity shortages would have to intensify much further to generate major price... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Another obstacle cleared on road to GST The consensus reached between India’s national and state governments on how different products will be dealt with under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) The rather sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economic recovery may now be slowing again. Meanwhile, price pressures remain subdued. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
