Japan Economics Weekly How worried should we be about corporate scandals? Recent scandals underline that Japan’s corporate governance practices are still poor. Investors often pay a heavy price as shown by the bankruptcy of Takata and the slump in Kobe Steel’s stock prices... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What is the true rate of inflation? Although much attention will fall on the release of the third-quarter Australian inflation figures next week, the reweighting of the CPI basket in the fourth-quarter will be more significant as it... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up as pay squeeze reaches its worst There can be no question that consumer spending growth has suffered as nominal pay growth has lagged behind the ongoing currency-driven bout of higher inflation. But some of the slowdown in consumer... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates further next year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% probably represents a pause in the central bank’s easing cycle, rather than a halt. We continue to think that with... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The surprising jump in Turkish inflation in the past few months appears to be mainly due to a combination of a rise in dairy and egg inflation, the lingering impact of previous falls in the lira as... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight inflation and fiscal worries The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) October policy meeting reveal that most members expressed caution about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with inflation... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates low for some time yet The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and the governor’s accompanying press conference makes clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative. We continue to expect the policy... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada will probably err on the side of caution at its policy meeting next week by deciding to keep interest rates at 1.00%. Although the Bank still seems confident in the economy, NAFTA... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy rebounding from hurricane disruption Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth remained robust in Q3 New activity data suggest that South Africa’s long-suffering economy experienced comparatively robust growth in mid-Q3. Today’s figures support our markedly above-consensus growth forecasts. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices The rise in CPI inflation in September took it close to its eventual peak and supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead and raise interest rates in November. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation stayed in negative territory in September, but with fresh subsidy cuts and the introduction of a new value-added tax on the horizon, we expect it to jump to 4.0-4.5% in the coming... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The modest rise in headline and underlying price pressures in the third quarter doesn’t dramatically alter the outlook for interest rates, but at the margin it indicates that rates may rise a little... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
