UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices The rise in CPI inflation in September took it close to its eventual peak and supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead and raise interest rates in November. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation stayed in negative territory in September, but with fresh subsidy cuts and the introduction of a new value-added tax on the horizon, we expect it to jump to 4.0-4.5% in the coming... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The modest rise in headline and underlying price pressures in the third quarter doesn’t dramatically alter the outlook for interest rates, but at the margin it indicates that rates may rise a little... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly eased in September. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation accelerated further last month. With reasons... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Credit (Sep.) Core inflation rose to a near six-year high last month and producer price inflation continued to rebound, consistent with resilient growth ahead of the Party Congress. But the credit data suggest that... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflation pressures weak apart from in Sweden The inflation data for September suggest that underlying price pressures remained subdued in most of the Nordic and Swiss countries, apart from Sweden. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How do our forecasts differ from the consensus and the IMF? For most countries, our forecasts are a little bit below those of both the consensus and the IMF. However, there are three economies, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Pakistan where we think other... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m rise in headline consumer prices in September was driven by a spike in gasoline prices due to Hurricane Harvey, while there was a more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices. But the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank shrugs off inflation dip Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% last night, and while there could be scope to ease policy a little further in the next 3-6 months, as things stand we expect rates... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update MAS to keep monetary policy supportive The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its monetary policy settings unchanged. The accompanying statement gives the MAS room to tighten policy if necessary, but given the subdued outlook... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) While headline consumer price inflation was unchanged last month, core inflation rose again. Policymakers will put less weight on the erratic industrial production data that were also released today... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation remained above the Riksbank’s target in September and, with the economy performing strongly, domestic price pressures will continue to build. We therefore expect the Riksbank to start... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target Although some measures have edged higher in recent months, we doubt that core inflation will return to the 2% inflation target anytime soon. Even if the output gap closes by the end of this year, the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) While Norwegian inflation picked up in September, domestic price pressures remain subdued and inflation is unlikely to meet the Norges Bank’s target any time soon. We therefore think that interest... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
