Global Economic Outlook Slowdown on the horizon Despite some weakness in the first quarter, and concerns about protectionism, global economic growth is likely to hold up well this year. In advanced economies, the outlook for investment and... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Policy tightening still a distant prospect The tight labour market is now boosting wage growth but not by enough to generate significant inflation. With the economy likely to slow this year, the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten policy... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight upside risks to inflation The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s April policy meeting show that, despite the recent drop in headline inflation, the MPC is still concerned about the upside risks to the outlook. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation ended the last fiscal year well below the Bank of Japan’s forecast for the current fiscal year and the Bank will have to lower its projections yet again. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Economy to withstand higher interest rates We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The fall back in CPI inflation towards the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range in the first quarter was partly due to government decisions rather than economic forces, but it nonetheless highlights... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While the bigger-than-expected fall in inflation in March means that another hike in interest rates in May is now less clear cut, we nonetheless think that it remains more likely than not. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Headline wholesale price inflation held steady in March. But with core price pressures still elevated, we remain comfortable with our view that policy rate hikes are likely later this year. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, easing cycle probably over Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75% last night and, while the statement gave little away regarding future moves, we think the easing cycle is probably over. 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The slight drop in consumer price inflation in March was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation picked up and is likely to accelerate further. As such, we remain comfortable... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline inflation increased to the Riksbank’s target in March, inflation excluding energy remained somewhat weaker. At its April meeting, we expect the Bank to signal that it will raise... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
