India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation in India rose last month but the headline rate remains below the RBI’s target, while core inflation is no major concern. An August rate cut is almost certain. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan at the wheel, inflation eases in CEE Developments in Turkey over the past week highlight that all levers of economic policy have effectively been centralised in the hands of one man – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The reaction in... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account confirms dovish intentions A lot has happened since the Governing Council’s policy meeting on 6th June, so the account published today has arguably been superseded by events. But it does confirm that even five weeks ago the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in June won’t prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates later this month and, in any case, we doubt that strength will be sustained. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) While core inflation in Sweden edged up once again in June, we expect weak domestic demand to weigh on underlying price pressures over the second half of the year and into 2020. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jun.) The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected fall in the headline Norwegian inflation rate in June is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s hawkish bias. With core price pressures still running above target, it is set to... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to a three-year low of 9.4% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will soon resume its easing cycle. But policymakers will wait for... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Lower oil prices kept headline inflation stable last month despite a further rise in pork prices. But with pig stocks still tumbling we think increases in consumer prices will start to accelerate... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The large drop in Mexican inflation, from 4.3% y/y in May to 3.9% y/y in June, is likely to be followed by another sizeable fall this month. That should see Banxico inch further towards interest rate... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 4.7% y/y last month, coming alongside recent dovish comments from the central bank, has prompted us to pencil in a 25bp rate cut (to 7.25%) at the next Board... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) The likely rise in headline inflation in June won’t prevent the MPC – now firmly under the control of doves following the surprise resignation of deputy governor Viral Acharya last month – from... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jun.) The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
