Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The fall in Russian inflation to the central bank’s target of 4.0% y/y in September is likely to be followed by a further decline in the headline rate over the coming months. We currently expect an... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI prolongs easing cycle The Reserve Bank reverted back to a 25bp rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing in the near term. But we are firmly non-consensus in expecting modest rate hikes by the end of... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s steep fall in Turkish inflation, taking it back into single digits, was flattered by base effects and the headline rate will rise again later this year. Even so, these figures mean that... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sept.) The further decline in Swiss inflation, to just 0.1% in September, will stoke deflationary fears at the SNB and will only strengthen its resolve to resist upward pressure on the franc. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Consumer Prices (Sep.) Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping further into negative territory in September, we don’t think there is much risk of a damaging period of prolonged deflation. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks return to the fore Events this month have highlighted the risks posed by politics to the region’s two largest economies. While Saudi Arabia initially suspended around half of its daily oil output following attacks on... 30th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth and debt worries mount across the region Figures released over the past month brought bad news for almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa’s key economies. After a surprisingly-strong rebound in Q2, growth in South Africa seems to have slowed at... 26th September 2019 · 13 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure of 3.2% y/y in September leaves the door open to further monetary easing over the coming months. Beyond that, the large output is likely to keep inflation... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi Arabian consumer price figures showed that deflation eased to -1.1% y/y in August and we expect it to return to positive territory in annual terms at the start of next year. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Where are we with Venezuela’s inflation? President Nicholas Maduro’s attempts to control inflation have had some effect, but without more severe measures we think that price pressures will probably remain extremely high over the coming... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
