UK Economics Weekly Closer to lift-off, but rates not going to the moon We still think it is more likely that the first hike in interest rates will come next year rather than this year. But irrespective of when it happens, the key point is that the subsequent pace of... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy, semi-conductors and Italy’s Green Pass The continued high level of energy prices strengthens our view that euro-zone inflation will keep rising in the coming months. But by lowering consumers’ purchasing power, it could actually reduce... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Israeli inflation to 2.5% y/y in September contained no major surprises and we think it will ease towards the lower end of the central bank’s 1-3% target next year. Even so, with... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia reopens, more hikes in Korea & Sri Lanka Countries across Emerging Asia are making renewed efforts to reopen their borders to boost flagging tourism sectors. However, the recovery is likely to be very gradual, not least because China (which... 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: signs of stagflation The multitude of supply shocks hitting Brazil’s economy are likely to keep inflation at 7-10% well into next year and cause the pace of recovery to slow to a crawl in the next few quarters. Overall... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages limiting growth and boosting inflation With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their... 14th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and UAE inflation, OPEC+, austerity in Algeria Inflation figures for Egypt showed the headline rate jumped to a 20-month high in September and we think that this will delay a turn towards interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the UAE emerged from... 14th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation rose to 0.6% y/y in September and is likely to drift a little higher over the rest of this year. However, we do not envisage a significant pick up in the headline rate and inflation is... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) While CPIF inflation in Sweden rose to a 155-month (!) high in September, we expect core inflation to remain at a more moderate level over the coming years, and lower than in the US, say. As a result... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Headline WPI inflation dropped to a five-month low in September on the back of a fall in food and fuel inflation, both of which are likely to continue easing. And with the recent drop in consumer... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Producer price inflation reached a new high last month due to the surge in global coal prices. There are few signs that this is feeding through to higher output prices of consumer goods, however. The... 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another look at US inflation compensation Although investors took today’s US CPI release in their stride, we still think there is scope for longer-dated Treasury yields to rise further over time. 13th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more muted 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September is not as encouraging as it looks, since a temporary Delta-related drop back in the prices of high contact services masked a... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
