India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in headline consumer price inflation in September won’t prevent another policy rate cut from the Reserve Bank, particularly since it was largely due to damage to farmers’ harvests rather than... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The weakness in wholesale price inflation in September is likely to persist until the end of the year and, although not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, supports our view... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Protests in Ecuador, soft Latam inflation Intensifying anti-austerity protests in Ecuador have threatened the government’s reform agenda and caused bond spreads to widen this week. But even if the government does water down its fiscal plans... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging prospects Several large emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia and India, should emerge from recent weak patches over the coming quarters. But at an aggregate level, that will be offset by slowdowns... 11th October 2019 · 24 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supermarket sweep, cash’s reign under threat The boom and bust in supermarket sales around last week’s sales tax hike has been interpreted by some as a sign the government’s countermeasures are not working. Afterall, most food is exempt from the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The muted gain in core consumer prices in September illustrates that, even after the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, inflationary pressures are still well contained. In that... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The persistent weakness of underlying inflation in Sweden serves as further proof, if needed, that the Riksbank will have to shift to a more dovish stance over the next six months or so. As a result... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further drop in Egyptian inflation in September to a seven-year low of just 4.8% y/y means that the central bank will press ahead with its easing cycle over the coming months. We now expect a... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 2.9% y/y last month opens the door to another 50bp cut in the Selic rate when Copom meets at the end of this month. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased to a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in September, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of the year. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect We now expect growth in New Zealand to ease from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020. Along with a rising unemployment rate, weak economic activity will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates twice next year. 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stimulus to drive rebound in growth India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain... 8th October 2019 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have jumped in September on the back of a surge in onion prices. But that’ll hardly bring tears to the eyes of the RBI, as it is likely to have stayed... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
