Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation edged down to 4.1% in September, but we expect that increasing fuel price pressures will cause the headline rate to rise later this year, preventing monetary easing. 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.7% y/y in the middle of October, one of its lowest rates on record, means policymakers will (barring any hiccups in the final vote on pension reform later today)... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi consumer prices fell at their slowest pace so far this year in September and we expect the headline rate to return to positive territory at the start of 2020. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBA to launch QE as inflation weakens further Underlying inflation was moored well below the lower end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band even as the housing market was booming and the labour market was tightening. With the unemployment rate set to... 21st October 2019 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in inflation to a two-year low in September has further to run, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide additional stimulus. 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Divide and exit Mario Draghi’s last meeting as ECB president is unlikely to be the good-natured celebration of his achievements that he might have hoped for. Instead, attention will focus on the growing divisions on... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Record-low inflation compensation unlikely to persist Though government bond yields have rebounded over the past week, inflation compensation remains near record lows in the US and the euro-zone. In our view, this is unlikely to persist, especially in... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation was unchanged at 1.9% in September but, as some of the temporary factors that have been boosting inflation fade, we expect it to fall over the next six months. While core inflation... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Unchanged CPI inflation of 1.7% in September was softer than either we or the consensus (1.8%) expected which might delay interest rate hikes following a Brexit deal and increase the chances of rate... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) Inflation in Nigeria picked up to 11.2% y/y in September, but we still expect that policymakers will cut their key rate in November. If policymakers opt to leave the rate on hold, they will probably... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation continued accelerating last month but core inflation held stable at a low level. With demand-side pressures on prices set to remain subdued in the coming months, we think that the... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
