Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
US Fed Watch Inflation concerns to be offset by weaker growth The Fed is set to announce at next week’s FOMC meeting that it will shortly begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. But of more interest will be the extent to which the new statement reflects the... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South East Asia bouncing back The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in... 27th October 2021 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2021) The decline in headline inflation in Q3 was entirely driven by base effects. More importantly, the strong rise in underlying inflation will keep pressure on the RBA to keep reducing monetary stimulus. 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recoveries under fire as supply crisis spreads The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next... 26th October 2021 · 45 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 2021) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation in the middle of October, to 10.3% y/y, alongside the latest rise in inflation expectations mean that Copom is likely to step up the pace of... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to higher wage inflation Wage growth remained moderate over the summer but, with labour shortages intensifying, it seems likely to accelerate sharply soon. The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS)... 26th October 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rising prices won’t prevent rebound in consumption The weaker yen and higher energy prices will reduce the purchasing power of households a bit. But with the household savings rate still very high, this won’t prevent a strong rebound in services... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, Treasury yields & the US stock market While we do not expect a tumble in the US stock market, we doubt that it will remain quite as resilient in the face of rising US Treasury yields as it has in recent weeks. 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore Consumer Prices (Sep.) While inflation in Singapore is set to rise further over the next few months, both the headline and core rate should moderate in 2022 to well within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) comfort... 25th October 2021 · 2 mins read
