Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The higher-than-expected rate of inflation in November was mainly a statistical quirk resulting from continued difficulties in collecting price data for travel tours. The same effect could cause... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in inflation from 0.7% in October to 0.3% in November (consensus 0.6%) and in the core rate from 1.5% to 1.1% came as a bit of a surprise. However, some of these moves were driven by... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in inflation from 0.7% in October to 0.3% in November (consensus 0.6%) and in the core rate from 1.5% to 1.1% came as a bit of a surprise. However, some of these moves were driven by... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Our key calls for 2021 The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is... 16th December 2020 · 10 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in November was driven by a further acceleration in core inflation but this could go into reverse soon, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine is successfully... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB not out of the woods yet As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a "cooperative" no deal Brexit rises The next Brexit decision “deadline” on Sunday 13 th December, may or may not be the turning point that results in the UK and EU hurtling either towards a deal or a no deal. But with the Brexit... 11th December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Both headline and core consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m in November, as the rebound in the prices of the goods and services that fell the most in the early stages of the pandemic continued. At 1... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in Norwegian inflation in November was skewed by energy effects, but the decline in the core rate underlines that policymakers will be in no rush to raise rates. Meanwhile, the... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the vaccine will affect Greece’s economy The recent tightening in coronavirus restrictions means that Greece’s recovery will shift into reverse in Q4 and the start of 2021 is also likely to be weak. However, the rollout of a vaccine by mid... 9th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation to 3.3% in November was largely driven by a drop in food and fuel prices, although underlying price pressures also remained soft. With inflation likely to settle... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices fell year-on-year for the first time since 2009 last month. But this was almost entirely driven by a rebound in pork supply and isn’t evidence of faltering demand. To the contrary... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.3% y/y last month, was (again) the result of higher food inflation. But inflation in most other price categories fell last month which may help to ease... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
