Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The surge in inflation in March was much larger than the Bank of Canada expected and suggests it will follow its 50 bp interest rate hike last week with another similar-sized move at its next meeting... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in inflation in South Africa in March, to 5.9% y/y, will keep the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle going at the next meeting in May. But the weakness of core inflation supports our view that... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Reopening could be a damp squib With all domestic restrictions gone and the booster rollout further severing the link between cases and deaths, the conditions for a reopening bounce are in place. Moreover, consumers have ample room... 19th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How far can interest rates rise? Most analysts are overestimating the near-term negative impact of RBA rate hikes on household finances and are therefore underestimating the degree of tightening required to bring inflation under... 19th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation and tighter policy in the Nordics Inflation data released this week across the Nordics confirmed that price pressures are building in the region. As a result, the Norges Bank looks set to press ahead with interest rate hikes, perhaps... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Boric on the backfoot, Argentine inflation concerns The political fight over a fresh round of pension withdrawals in Chile underlines the Boric administration's struggle to wean the economy off accommodative policies. This will heap more pressure on... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Peak inflation won’t stop the Fed hiking aggressively The news that core prices rose by a more modest 0.3% in March, even as higher energy prices drove headline inflation to a 40-year high of 8.5%, explains why investors pared bets this week on how far... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No respite for Sunak as Stagflation bites For an embattled Chancellor, the news from the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. But despite the worrying signs for economic activity over the coming months, with CPI inflation now... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak consumer confidence and renewed supply risks World GDP appears to have expanded at a below-trend pace in Q1 as high inflation limited real consumer spending and supply shortages and Omicron waves continued to disrupt activity. March’s broad... 14th April 2022 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation surge sets stage for June rate hike We’ve been arguing for several months that both the consensus and the RBI have been underestimating the upside threats to inflation. Consumer price data for March released this week have reinforced... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to follow RBNZ as inflation about to surge The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the 50bp rate hike we were anticipating this week and we think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will embark on its own tightening cycle in June. With the... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will continue to tighten slowly South Africa’s headline inflation rate will stay close to the upper bound of the central bank’s 3-6% target range in the coming months before falling sharply in the second half of the year. Some MPC... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in hawkish mode The Bank moved into full-blown hawkish mode today, hiking its overnight policy rate by 50bp to 1.00% and announcing that quantitative tightening will start later this month, with no caps on the value... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
