US Economics Weekly Democrats pushing forward with stimulus plans This week the Democrats took the first step toward forcing a large-scale stimulus through the Senate using reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority. But even though it required an all... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish resilience, Swiss reluctance The latest data show that the Swedish economy is proving more resilient to virus containment measures than we had feared, giving the Riksbank some breathing room ahead of next week’s meeting. Having... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today but committed to keeping policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. We no longer expect any more rate cuts, but markets are... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jan.) Inflation broke through the upper boundary of the central Bank’s target range for the first time in two years in January and is likely to lead the Bank to pause its easing cycle. But with price... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone HICP Inflation (Jan. 2021) The jump in inflation in January reflects several one-off factors, some of which will be reversed in February. Headline inflation is likely to rise to around 2% by the end of the year, but will drop... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise Germany’s state-level data show that the sharp increase in inflation in January resulted from higher energy prices and delays to winter sales, as well as changes to the weights of the HICP basket... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response France Flash CPI (Jan.) The surprisingly big jump in France’s headline inflation rate in January was primarily driven by a surge in manufactured goods inflation as winter sales were postponed by two weeks. This will be... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains the strength of inflation in January? January’s surprisingly large increases in inflation in Germany and Spain were due to a range of factors, including a rise in VAT, higher energy and holiday prices, and methodological changes. As a... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation on the rise The jump in consumer prices in Q4 largely reflects price hikes for items whose prices are set by the government. Even so, underlying inflation is holding up better than we and the RBA had anticipated... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.) The jump in German HICP inflation appears to reflect methodological changes as well as the VAT hike. If a similar approach is adopted throughout the euro-zone, which at face value seems likely... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
