FX Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials... 6th August 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Infrastructure deal heads to crucial vote While many Republicans will balk at the cost of the bipartisan infrastructure package, which the CBO said would add $256bn (1.1% of GDP) to the deficit over the next decade, that is unlikely to derail... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Delta disruption spreads as vaccine exports soar Escalating efforts to contain China’s first Delta variant outbreak will hurt some sectors of the economy. But if they are as successful as they have been in the past, the overall damage will be... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now... 5th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further hikes in store as inflation concerns build The hawkish statement accompanying yesterday’s 100bp rate hike by the Brazilian central bank (to 5.25%) means that the Selic rate will increase further than we had anticipated. We now expect it to be... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (July) After dropping back to just within the central bank’s target range for the first time this year, headline inflation in the Philippines is set to continue falling in the coming months. This will open... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Are investors concerned about peak big-tech earnings? The share prices of most of the US big-tech firms have faltered – and underperformed the broader market – since they reported another quarter of consensus-beating earnings results last week. This has... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How best to gauge underlying pay pressure If labour earnings growth took a decisive leg up, this would force central banks to rethink how long this year’s bout of higher inflation in advanced economies will last. The challenge is that the... 4th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update How do our key calls compare with the consensus? Our expectations for GDP growth and inflation this year are close to the consensus but, beyond then, we think both will be weaker than most expect. This is likely to feed through to a fall in the... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation expectations & pay growth key to policy tightening A bumper rise in utilities prices in October could contribute to CPI inflation climbing to a 10-year high of 4.4% in November. But as we don’t expect higher CPI inflation to feed through into higher... 3rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further jump in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 19.0% y/y in July is unlikely to trigger an interest rate hike but it will delay the start of an easing cycle until the back end of this year... 3rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
