Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The encouraging evidence that the upward pressure on underlying inflation from global factors has started to ease will be of little comfort to the Bank of England given the signs that this is being... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug.) Home sales fell further below the pre-pandemic norm in July and pre-construction sales seem to have fallen through the floor, but there is no evidence yet that this is weighing on construction. 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in headline inflation to 7.6% in July left it lower than the Bank of Canada’s recent forecast but, amid continued broad upward pressure on core prices, we still judge that the Bank is more... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation in July reflects easing wholesale food inflation and lower commodity prices. But given both WPI and CPI inflation are still elevated, we think the RBI will... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00%... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation picked up to 2.7% y/y in July due to strengthening underlying price pressures, but we think that it is now at or close to a peak and will gradually fall back over the rest of this year... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s tax reform, inflation problems persist The new tax bill unveiled by Colombia’s government, which aims to raise tax revenues to fund the government’s social programmes and “consolidate the fiscal adjustment” doesn’t change our view that the... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inverting to a hurting? Yield curve inversions have a patchy record of predicting recessions in Canada, but they almost always precede a sharp economic slowdown and the unusually deep nature of the current inversion makes it... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a bigger and longer-lasting squeeze on real incomes The prospect of a bigger rise in utility prices in October and in the first half of 2023 means the risks to our forecast for CPI inflation to rise from June's 40-year high of 9.4% to a peak of 12.5%... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th August 2022 · 1 min read
