Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deeper recession, inflation to hit 10% The continued surge in European gas prices, and likelihood that they will remain extremely high, means that the euro-zone will probably suffer a deeper recession than we had previously anticipated. It... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2022) The further fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 9.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August was mainly due to tax cuts on energy and masks the fact that underlying price pressures remain strong... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Rental boom keeps construction elevated The surge in interest rates so far this year has contributed to a sharp decline in home sales but, so far at least, that has not weighed on construction activity. Housing starts averaged 279,000... 24th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August raises the risk that Banxico pushes through another 75bp interest rate hike at next... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update State bearing the cost of lower French energy bills France’s low energy inflation rate relative to those of its neighbours reflects government policies that have limited the increase in retail prices even as wholesale prices have risen. This will... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The latest rise in inflation in South Africa to 7.8% y/y in July will raise the pressure on Reserve Bank officials to continue tightening policy aggressively. Even as signs of a faltering economy... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Inflation will rise above 3% by year-end Soaring electricity and gas prices will help lift inflation above 3% by year-end. But with that boost unlikely to be sustained, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to tighten monetary policy. Asia Drop... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs fall further into recessionary territory August’s flash PMIs suggest that activity has weakened considerably, and, at face value, suggest that both the US and euro-zone have fallen into recession. What’s more, the forward-looking components... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks beginning to shift focus The growth outlook for the emerging world has taken a turn for the worse. The latest activity data for China suggest that the post-lockdown recovery has lost steam. The PBOC has responded by lowering... 23rd August 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update The Bank’s mandate does not require radical change It’s clear in hindsight that the Bank of England kept monetary policy too loose for too long during the recovery from the pandemic. But that does not mean that the mandate given to it by the... 23rd August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) With the latest surge in wholesale gas prices set to intensify the cost of living crisis, it is probably only a matter of time before the activity PMIs start ringing the recession alarm bell. We think... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) August’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy is now contracting. While global price pressures have become less intense in the past few months as supply chain problems have eased, soaring... 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia’s first rate hike won’t be the last Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% today, and the hawkish commentary from the press conference increases the risk that the Bank will tighten policy further this year. 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebounding real incomes to support consumption After a year-long contraction in real disposable incomes, the sharp declines in energy prices over recent weeks are finally providing some relief. Alongside continued strong employment growth, we... 22nd August 2022 · 10 mins read
