Japan Economics Focus BoJ policy rate will reach 2% by 2030 The recent period of high inflation in Japan has kick-started a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. If inflation expectations remain elevated and structural forces push up the neutral rate of... 27th November 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria resists hikes, Zambia debt, Transnet problems Zambia and Angola raised interest rates this week in response to high inflation, but Nigeria didn’t. Indeed, the scheduled CBN meeting for this week didn’t even take place. The Bank now has its work... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs continue to point to stagnation in DMs The S&P Global PMIs have provided misleading signals about the strength of activity in the US and Europe this year. But, for what it’s worth, the flash surveys for November suggest that DMs are ending... 24th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly FES creates a “clearer path” for Macklem It would be a stretch to say the government showed fiscal restraint in the Fall Economic Statement, but the announcement of only a few billion dollars in extra spending measures means that Finance... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal policy adds to headwinds Euro-zone governments have been tightening fiscal policy this year and will continue doing so in 2024 – all the more so if Germany chooses to make some additional expenditure cuts in response to the... 24th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Homegrown inflation set to slow further Following a rather hawkish speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, the financial markets now consider it more likely than not that the Bank will lift interest rates further next year. However... 24th November 2023 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is running out of steam. And while Banxico opened the door to the start of a monetary easing... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CPIS Flash PMIs (Nov. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 48.7 in October to 50.1 in November, is still consistent with a mild contraction in real GDP. However, activity isn’t weak enough to reduce... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 5 key questions on the war and Israel’s public finances The Israeli government’s budget deficit is widening sharply and we think it will breach 5% of GDP next year. Provided the length of the war and the increase in the deficit are short-lived, we don’t... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet tomorrow. Given that... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (November 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 23) The economy’s third-quarter strength was not the start of a renewed acceleration and we continue to expect GDP growth to weaken. Regardless, resilient economic growth has not prevented a continued... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2023) EM GDP has proven stronger than expected this year, but we think growth will weaken in the coming months and come in below consensus in 2024. Despite recent upside surprises, inflation has resumed its... 21st November 2023 · 0 mins read
