Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in South Africa eased a bit more than expected, to 7.4% y/y, in November and there were encouraging signs that core price pressures are fading. The figures will provide room for the Reserve... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Inflation has peaked, but how far will it fall? The Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that CPI inflation has peaked. But with activity holding up and wage growth still strengthening, the 2.0% inflation target is still a long way... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The increase in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.0% was a touch below expectations but it still marks a new 31-year high. With CPIF inflation having risen to well above the Riksbank’s recent... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to a 21-month low in November chimes with the sharper-than-expected drop in headline consumer price inflation released earlier this week. We maintain our... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Wage growth slowdown to drive inflation even lower Despite some mixed signals in the recent data, we still expect the tentative easing of labour market conditions already seen to push wage growth lower soon, with that slowdown gathering pace as... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The Fed will still hike its policy rate by 50bp tomorrow and the new projections could show the peak in rates above 5%, but the 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in November provides strong... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to expect if US inflation really has peaked? The real returns from both US equities and 10-year Treasuries have often been quite good in the couple of years after past peaks in core inflation in the US, but the period following peak inflation in... 12th December 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
Japan Economics Update Food import price aftershocks to affect 2023 We expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target through the middle of next year despite government utility price caps and falling non-food inflation over that period. One reason is... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
