India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The rise in Indian CPI inflation in August to further above the RBI’s 2-6% target range should ensure that the central bank delivers another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) in its meeting at the... 12th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Inflation continued to fall sharply in Russia in August, to 14.3% y/y, and there’s little standing in the way of another interest rate cut by the central bank next week. We expect a 50bp reduction to... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2022) Brazil’s headline inflation rate fell to a 14-month low of 8.7% y/y in August, but hawkish comments from the central bank this week support our view that there will be one final 25bp interest rate... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No tightening even if yen stays near 145 Policymakers ratcheted up their verbal intervention as the yen weakened this week but the bar to more direct action is high. We don’t think the Bank of Japan would be too concerned if the yen remained... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) The continued increase in core inflation in August took it further above the Norges Bank’s target. With policymakers in hawkish mood, we expect another 50bp rate hike at the next meeting in two weeks. 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Consumer price inflation fell in August and remains below the PBOC’s preferred ceiling of 3%, leaving room for the Bank to ease policy further. Meanwhile, producer price inflation declined to its... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.7% y/y in August will strengthen the case for Banxico to deliver a third consecutive 75bp increase to interest rates later this month. But... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Truss stamps down on inflation The possible policy of the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, to freeze the utility price cap at £2,500 until sometime in 2024 will dramatically lower the near term path for CPI inflation. Rather than... 7th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
