US Economics Weekly Shutdowns and strikes could disrupt economy With no agreement on a new contract with the big three automakers, the United Auto Workers union has started limited strike action. The impact on overall GDP should be limited but, if production... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 25.8% y/y in August, as the effects of the removal of fuel subsidies and the weakness in the naira continue to bite. We expect... 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly G20 “success”, iPhone 15, Q4 Outlook The G20 summit in New Delhi, which managed to exceed low expectations, reinforces our view that in a global economy that is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, India will lean towards the US and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP on a knife edge, Pakistan inflation worries The scheduled highlights of the coming week are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. While Indonesia and Taiwan are very likely to leave policy settings unchanged, the... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update A coin toss decision for the SNB On balance, we think the SNB will look through the recent low inflation and hike rates by 25bp one last time to 2.00%, given policymakers’ previous hawkish commentary. But with the economy stagnating... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Plunging food inflation to offset higher oil prices CPI food inflation has remained elevated in recent months but, with wholesale price growth easing rapidly, we are confident it will soon fall sharply. That will help to offset the impact of higher oil... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and rates, Morocco quake, new oil f’casts The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news... 14th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in July to 2.0% y/y in August, the weakest pace of inflation in over a year and we think it will ease further heading into 2024. 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (August) Although the drop in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in August was bigger than the consensus had anticipated, it will not prevent policymakers from raising its key policy rate by another... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Oil prices and the threat to the global inflation outlook 19th September 2023, 2:00PM BST The recent surge in oil prices is fuelling concerns about an inflationary resurgence that could upset central bank monetary policy plans. But how worried should investors be?
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The Fed will look through the 0.6% m/m jump in headline CPI in August as it was driven by the recent rally in energy prices. Although core prices also rose by a slightly stronger 0.3% m/m, there is... 13th September 2023 · 2 mins read
