Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 25th January 2023, 5:00PM GMT Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior FX Markets Economist, held a 20-minute briefing shortly after the...
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2022) Inflation hit 4% in December but due to the government’s energy subsidies we expect it to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target by mid-year. 20th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three bits of good news for the CEE inflation outlook Moderating core price pressures, the continued fall in inflation expectations and the sharp decline in wholesale natural gas prices mean we think inflation in Central and Eastern Europe will fall a... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (December) The euro-zone has probably passed peak inflation as sharp declines in food and energy inflation are set to drag down the headline rate. But December’s final HICP data showed that underlying inflation... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in South Africa came in softer than expected, at 7.2% y/y, in December, and with core inflation ticking down as well, we think that a slowdown in the tightening cycle is nailed on. We expect... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The small drop in CPI inflation from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December (consensus forecast 10.5%) and the unchanged core rate of 6.3% (consensus 6.2%) suggest the inflation battle is not yet won... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing supply shortages starting to ease The shortage of new housing caused by the government’s HomeBuilder grant is showing signs of easing. That means that the housing downturn should start to weigh on homebuilding in earnest and that new... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The large fall in new listings in December failed to prevent another sizeable drop in house prices, but the improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that the downward pressure on... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the annual rates of core inflation remain elevated, the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median dropped back to 2.5% in December. Elevated inflation expectations mean that the... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey & Final HICP (Jan./Dec.) Economic sentiment in Germany improved further at the start of 2023 adding to the signs that the economy will hold up better than we feared. But with underlying price pressures still rising, tight... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Disruptions worsening underlying weakness in Nigeria Recent data suggest that Nigeria’s economy was struggling even before demonetisation efforts hit activity late last year. And we don’t expect economic news to take a turn for the better any time soon... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
