Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Inflation (Mar. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 3.0% y/y in February to 2.7% y/y in March as both food and non-food inflation decreased last month. We think that inflation will continue to ease... 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed CPI unlikely to drive Treasury yields much higher While we think that today’s US CPI data has increased the probability of another rate hike from the Fed next month, we continue to think that Treasuries will resume their rally later this year while... 12th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices immediately after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) There were some encouraging signs in the March CPI report, including the first evidence that shelter inflation is slowing, but core prices still increased by 0.4% m/m which, on an annualised basis, is... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation back to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in March supports our view that the central bank’s hiking cycle has come to an end. 12th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade bearing the brunt of weak demand As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Feb.) The plunge in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.7% y/y, was driven by a sharp decline in food inflation; core inflation remains high and the headline inflation rate is set to rise again next... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s inflation data make it all but certain that the Norges Bank will press on with its planned 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in May. 11th April 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 33-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped below 1% for the first time in over a year. The key driver was lower food and fuel... 11th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House price rebound would make Bank’s job harder The local real estate board data suggest that new listings fell again in March, defying expectations that high interest rates could lead to forced home sales. With supply falling by more than demand... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina-IMF trouble ahead, Andean central banks A read between the lines of the IMF’s Fourth Review of Argentina’s $44bn Extended Fund Facility suggests that the deal could be starting to fray at the seams. Meanwhile, the latest messaging from... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today belied the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline inflation set... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
