Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (March) Final inflation data confirmed that the drop in headline inflation in March was entirely due lower energy inflation. With the core rate not yet passed its peak, we think the ECB will raise rates to a... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation reading for March came in stronger than expected, at 7.1% y/y, and core inflation remains uncomfortably high for policymakers at the Reserve Bank. With persistent... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Plunging energy price inflation will soon drag down CPI inflation more significantly, but the stubbornness of core inflation suggests that the fight against inflation is lasting longer than the... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Base effects helped to pull headline inflation lower in March, but there were also encouraging signs in core inflation, as the average three-month annualised gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median fell to a... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Credit Suisse post mortem, Norwegian stagflation Swiss lawmakers' vote against the Credit Suisse rescue package this week does not impact the bank's takeover by UBS or the associated government guarantees. However, it has highlighted the need for... 14th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.9% in March suggests that it may now be passed its peak. But it is still much higher than the Riksbank had anticipated at its February meeting and... 14th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration boom won’t be inflationary Concerns that the ongoing surge in net overseas migration to Australia will fuel demand-pull inflation are overblown, especially with the population still below its pre-virus trend. To the contrary, a... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowing wage growth dampens inflation hopes Governor Ueda said this week he will be watching if wage growth can be sustained at a level that will support inflation at or above target. So far, the signs aren’t encouraging. Wage growth has fallen... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Mixed signals for now but broader weakness to come Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial... 13th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation: on the edge of the descent The raft of EM CPI figures out this week show that headline inflation is, in aggregate, finally starting to fall significantly, and we expect it to decline further in the coming months. But core... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
