UK Economics Weekly Inflation a persistent problem for the Bank of England Lingering underlying price pressures and the continued resilience of economic activity has left us more comfortable than we were at the start of this week with our view that the Bank of England will... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong start to Q2, 50bp May hike still on the cards The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy started Q2 on a strong footing. With underlying price pressures also still strong, we think a 50bp hike at the ECB meeting in May remains the most... 21st April 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Tight-lipped MPC won’t need to resume rate hikes The minutes of the MPC's April meeting - in which the repo rate was kept on hold at 6.50% - show that the majority of the panel is willing to resume policy tightening should the data warrant it. But... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly We still expect Ueda to spring a surprise next week Press reports suggest that the Bank of Japan will predict inflation of 2% two years ahead at next week's meeting, which would suggest that the Bank is closer than ever to meeting its inflation target... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s flash PMIs point to further upside risks to our GDP forecasts, indicating a broad improvement in both domestic and external demand. That suggests the exports downturn may be short-lived... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2023) Underlying inflation saw a sizeable increase in March, while headline inflation inched down thanks to falling energy prices. A stronger yen and falling import price inflation should still see... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) Although inflation in Q1 was below what the RBNZ had expected, we don’t expect the Bank to take its foot off the brakes just yet. Indeed, with non-tradables prices continuing to rise at a rapid clip... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 23) 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Falling margins to help bring inflation down The recent undershooting of CPI used vehicle prices relative to wholesale auction prices appears, at least partly, to reflect a squeeze on dealer margins as demand has cooled. The upshot is that we... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK? Inflation in the UK has stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has endured the worst of both worlds – a big energy shock (like the euro-zone) and labour shortages (even worse than the US). Admittedly... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
