India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) The unambiguously good CPI inflation figures for August increase the chances that the Bank of England decides to leave interest rates at 5.25% tomorrow, but we still think one final 25 basis point... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices not the biggest threat to EM inflation The rise in oil prices, and upwards revision to our 2024 oil price forecast, will have only a small impact on EM inflation and won’t stop it from falling further. The much bigger upside risks to our... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ policy rate will settle at 0% in the long run The wage-setting behaviour of Japanese firms has changed over the last couple of years and to reflect this we’re revising our long-run inflation forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%. However, that would still... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal rules, Kenya austerity, Ghana CPI This week saw reports that South Africa’s Treasury is proposing to establish a new “fiscal anchor” in a bid to keep investors on side amid a worsening budget position. But a looser fiscal policy seems... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation? Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdowns and strikes could disrupt economy With no agreement on a new contract with the big three automakers, the United Auto Workers union has started limited strike action. The impact on overall GDP should be limited but, if production... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly G20 “success”, iPhone 15, Q4 Outlook The G20 summit in New Delhi, which managed to exceed low expectations, reinforces our view that in a global economy that is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, India will lean towards the US and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
