UK Economic Outlook Government’s fiscal plans unlikely to derail economy We are not expecting the planned fiscal policies of the government to derail the economy – we expect GDP to grow by 1.0% this year and by a decent 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Instead, the main... 1st October 2024 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q3 2024) The slight rise in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the robust rebound in activity in Q2 will continue into Q3. The Tankan’s headline index of business... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Pivot to stimulus lowers immediate risks A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the... 27th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN surprise hike, Kenya’s turn to Abu Dhabi The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise interest rate hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to... 27th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Aug) As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly... 27th September 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
