Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.4% y/y, in September supports our view that the Reserve Bank will only turn towards interest rate cuts from next year. 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) The failure of CPI inflation to fall in September from August’s rate of 6.7% will be a bit of a disappointment to most. But at 6.7% it is still below the 6.9% rate the Bank of England projected back... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q3 Inflation review – Is the RBA done hiking interest rates? 1698202800 Economists from our ANZ and Markets teams held an online briefing following the release of Australian Q3 inflation data.
Europe Economics Update Raising our long-run ECB interest rate forecast We have recently published detailed analysis arguing that equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are now higher than they were before the pandemic, and that they will continue to rise over... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where do things stand in Egypt? It has been almost a year since Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but progress on key policies that form part of the program has stalled. The pound has been a de-facto peg since... 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Stakes in Argentina’s election couldn’t be higher Argentines face the choice between a shock-therapy style approach to tackling the country’s economic issues or more of the same unorthodox policymaking when they head to the polls in Sunday’s... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era 1698755400 What will a world of structurally higher interest rates look like? How will central bank behaviour change in the coming years? What will this mean for market returns?
Global Economics Focus Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? Why we expect a more volatile inflation outlook in the coming years, and how central banks are likely to respond in setting nominal rates in this new normal. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2023) 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 26.7% y/y in September, reflecting the continued passthrough from the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s devaluation... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
