Asia Rapid Response Malaysia Monetary Policy Decision (November) Despite the sharp downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left policy rates unchanged (at 3.0%) today. We expect the central bank to keep the policy rate on hold for the rest... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The surprise slump in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.7 in October, from 49.0, suggests the recent recovery in factory-sector activity is fading and supports our view that the upturn in economic... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been update with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Tight policy and a weak external environment will constrain growth over the coming quarters. 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to another energy shock? An energy shock caused by an escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel would have obvious similarities with that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But we think that ECB policymakers... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q3) The slightly stronger 1.1% increase in the employment cost index in the third quarter is another sign that the earlier rapid easing in labour market conditions may be fading, but the forward-looking... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & HICP (October) The euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and the continued weakness of the surveys at the start of Q4 suggests that the outlook is poor. Meanwhile, inflation fell sharply again in October but the period... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct. Flash Estimate) The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (October) October’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission added to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is contracting. While the labour market still looks tight, labour shortages are... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and state CPI (October) The small decline in German GDP in the third quarter and upward revision to the previous two quarters means the economy is not doing quite as poorly as anticipated. But GDP has essentially been... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa food prices, SARB resignation, Zambia bond deal Inflation across Africa has been falling back recently, but persistent food price pressures pose a threat to policymaker’s ambitions to start cutting interest rates. In South Africa, the resignation... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t need to talk tough for much longer The Bank of Canada’s insistence that inflationary risks have increased seems at odds with its new forecasts, which show a large degree of economic slack opening up next year. Our view that the Bank is... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Massa vs. Milei, Colombia-China, Chile’s peso worries In Argentina, investors’ nerves have been calmed a little after Sergio Massa, the Peronist presidential candidate who came top in the first round vote, showed signs of moderation. But likely fiscal... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Sep.) The stronger gains in real consumption and the core PCE price index in September are a potential concern for Fed officials, but won’t be enough to convince them to resume raising interest rates next... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
