Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a risk is the rise in EM sovereign FX debt? A surge in sovereign foreign currency debt issuance over the past 18 months has made Argentina’s recent economic turmoil worse and has contributed to the tensions that have arisen in Bahrain’s... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Headwinds building The latest hard activity figures suggest that EM growth held up well going into Q2, but that headwinds to the macroeconomic outlook are starting to build. The most recent trade figure show that EM... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities likely to struggle even if trade worries ease Emerging market (EM) equities have been caught up in the more general sell-off in EM assets in the past month, with the MSCI EM Index dropping by about 3% in local currency terms. Even if recent... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the joint sell-off in EM currencies and bonds last? The recent widespread weakness of emerging market (EM) currencies has been accompanied by a rise in local currency bond yields in almost all EMs. But even if currencies generally continue to slide, as... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency sell-off tests resolve of some central banks History suggests that the sell-off in EM currencies over the past couple of months could be large enough to push central banks in Mexico, Brazil and South Africa to raise interest rates – although the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Despite the market turmoil of recent weeks, problems in Turkey and Argentina look to be isolated incidents, with our capital flows Tracker giving no indication of large or widespread capital outflows... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 2% inflation target remains elusive Headline inflation has been falling recently as the impact of the short-lived spike in food prices over the winter has reversed. Energy inflation has continued to slow as utility bills are rising less... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
