China Economics Weekly Letting go of equities, holding the renminbi Chinese policymakers are intervening to stem market declines, but unevenly: they appear much more concerned about the currency than about equities. Meanwhile, worries about the domestic outlook... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: should we worry about rising public FX debt? The sharp rise in the Egyptian government’s foreign currency debt over the past few years is not yet a major cause for concern – the risk of a destabilising fall in the pound appears to be low and the... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Protectionism not the only headwind for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points today suggests that the central bank’s priority over the coming months will be to support the currency... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rupee drops to record low, one year of the GST The drop in the Indian rupee to an all-time low this week has inevitably triggered comparisons with the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But we don’t think there is major cause for concern. The external... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian markets take a beating on trade war fears Rising US-China trade tensions, fears over the outlook for China’s domestic economy and the uncertain outlook over US monetary policy have all weighed heavily on the region’s financial markets over... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update CEMAC: Recovery will not be sustained After a painful adjustment, growth in the Central African franc zone will pick up in 2018 and 2019. The region’s longer-term outlook, however, is poor. Indeed, tensions between Cameroon and its more... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain gets Gulf support, new gas discovery in Egypt? The announcement on Wednesday that Bahrain is in talks with the other Gulf countries over financial support reinforces our view that, despite recent worries in the markets, its dollar peg won’t be... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier dollar bonds under pressure Emerging market dollar bonds have struggled over the past month, but those in frontier markets have typically fared much worse. Of course, risky assets in general have sold off amid fears of a global... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC allows renminbi to weaken The latest escalation of US threats against China has triggered a slide in the renminbi. The People’s Bank appears to have done little to resist the move so far, but it will remain wary that sustained... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a risk is the rise in EM sovereign FX debt? A surge in sovereign foreign currency debt issuance over the past 18 months has made Argentina’s recent economic turmoil worse and has contributed to the tensions that have arisen in Bahrain’s... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
