Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Turkish lira’s latest fall mean for inflation? The Turkish lira’s decline in recent weeks will keep headline inflation elevated, prompting the central bank to shrug off political pressure and hike interest rates in the coming months. The big risk... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Apr.) China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to point to very little PBOC action in the FX markets, with muted capital outflows opening the door to renewed efforts to liberalise the capital account. 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA rate hike may finally provide a floor for the peso Today’s 675bp interest rate hike by the Argentine central bank, the third emergency hike in a week, finally seems to have brought some support to the currency. Evidence from other EM central banks... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further EM currency weakness likely to be limited Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations should limit weakness in EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have continued to slip against the dollar, probably in large part due to rising bond yields in the US and a global increase in risk aversion. We suspect that US... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Swiss and Nordic currencies recoup their losses? The Swiss franc and Nordic currencies have come under pressure this year. While we think that the franc and the Norwegian krone have further to fall, we suspect that the Swedish krona will rebound. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What next for the Aussie and kiwi dollars? The recent weakening in the Australian and New Zealand dollars probably has a bit further to go and the big risks still lie on the downside. That said, a shift in interest rate differentials next year... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rate differentials unlikely to buoy the dollar for long The relationships between the dollar’s value against other “majors” and the gaps between expected interest rates in the US and those elsewhere appear to be re-establishing themselves. This has been... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies wobble Asian currencies have recently lost a bit of ground against the dollar as rising Treasury yields in the US have helped push the greenback higher. Although uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the party over? In the last edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we warned that the party in the financial markets might not last much longer. Since then, the US S&P 500 has fallen considerably from a record high... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry about the rupiah Earlier this week Bank Indonesia raised the prospect of an interest rate hike to support the rupiah, which has come under further downward pressure as rising Treasury yields in the US have pushed the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
