Global Economics Focus Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A busy month for central banks The three major Nordic and Swiss central banks met in December and provided very different messages about the outlook for monetary policy in their respective countries. First, the Swiss National Bank... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will 2018 be a last hurrah for the US dollar? We expect the dollar to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies this year, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks generally... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy shrugging off euro’s rise At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook Unsurprisingly December’s uneventful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting barely caused a ripple in financial markets, leaving market participants’ expectations for future interest rates all but... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 We expect Japan’s GDP growth to slow next year as the economy is now operating above capacity. Price and wage pressures should strengthen somewhat but inflation will remain well below the Bank of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM currencies do not appear overvalued Although EM currencies are much stronger on average against the dollar now than they were at the start of 2017, most of them still do not appear significantly overvalued. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sits tight as franc still seen as “highly valued” The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to sit tight as ECB taper eases pressure on franc Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
