Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of mixed messages on the US labour market Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report. In doing so, it appears to have called at... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors price in rate cuts, PBOC taps lending scheme In contrast to elsewhere, bond yields in China continued to drop this week as investors increasingly come around to our view that further cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements are imminent... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) The run of softer-than-expected news on CPI inflation and wage growth means we now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than before. Our forecast is that rates will be cut from 5.25... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of markets’ rocky start to 2024 With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are the bears finally coming for the Goldilocks trade? We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. Note: The... 21st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ normalisation may lift JGB yields & bolster the yen We expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise next year, as the era of negative interest rates there comes to an end and constraints on the bond market ease. And we think the yield gap... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (December 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have recovered somewhat lately as “safe” asset yields have tumbled. While we suspect any slowdown in global growth could put risky asset valuations back under pressure... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mission Accomplished? While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Even lower rate expectations may fuel the Treasury rally Investors have revised down their expectations for the Fed funds rate a long way in recent weeks. But we think that shift will continue in the coming months, pushing Treasury yields down further. 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still see scope for further falls in bond yields While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to... 12th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read