Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year. 19th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilts may keep rallying as UK inflation tumbles We think that UK inflation will continue to fall faster and further than many seem to be expecting, paving the way for the Bank of England to cut interest rates by more than is now discounted in... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bonds and equities have fallen sharply since January after the Fed pushed back expectations of the timing of rate cuts. The good news is that current account deficits in EMs... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation surprise unlikely to derail AI bubble for long Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is... 13th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update US credit spreads could fall further despite high bankruptcies US corporate credit spreads have continued to shrink even as bankruptcies have soared but, while they are now fairly narrow, we think there is still some scope for them to tighten further over the... 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a delay to Fed rate cuts spells higher EM yields We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will Treasuries keep ignoring oil prices? Oil prices have had only limited impact on US Treasury yields recently, and we suspect that this will remain the case in the next couple of years. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t see the post-payrolls surge in yields as an omen We doubt today’s rise in Treasury yields will be sustained, given our dovish view of the Fed. And we expect US equities to have another banner year. 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds 1707404400 While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.
Capital Daily It’s about the end, not the start Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read