Capital Daily EM bonds may underperform despite early easing cycles Emerging market (EM) easing cycles are underway in earnest even as the first Fed cut remains a while away. We think this easing will help to drive EM local-currency (LC) government bond yields lower... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September decisions 1695304800 Will the FOMC’s September meeting confirm that the Fed is done with tightening? Will the ECB and Bank of England take rates higher?
Capital Daily Weighing up the prospects for DM bond yields The worsening economic growth backdrop suggests to us that interest rate expectations for cyclically sensitive developed market (DM) economies are too high. We expect them to fall and drag bond yields... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Another false dawn for China’s markets? New measures to support China’s struggling property sector seem to have sparked some renewed optimism in the country’s financial markets. We think there are three points to note. 4th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Higher for (only a bit) longer? Despite today’s rebound, the general fall in Treasury yields over the past week against a backdrop of mixed economic data suggests investors could be starting to come round to our view that price... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Relative outlook for US and EZ high yield spreads We expect the gap between high yield (HY) credit spreads in the euro-zone and the US to narrow over the rest of this year as spreads in both economies climb. 29th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Jackson Hole: what a difference a year makes Market participants have taken Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference today as somewhat hawkish, even if the fallout, so far, is some way from the violent... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect Treasury yields to fall We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in 10-year JGB yield no surprise given global trend Although the 10-year JGB yield has gradually been creeping up towards the new 1% ceiling tolerated by the BoJ, this is no surprise given a broad-based rise in 10-year sovereign yields elsewhere... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read