Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle continues as yen weakens The sudden strengthening of the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar earlier this week has triggered speculation that the Ministry of Finance sold foreign exchange reserves to support the yen... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for euro-zone “peripheral” spreads While we think the risk of a material increase in euro-zone “peripheral” spreads has risen, our central forecast remains that they will end 2024 a bit below their current levels. 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are surging bond yields responsible for surging bond yields? A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How a surge in bond yields could yet wreak havoc We expect any rise in bond yields to be gradual and don’t believe it will create major economic or market dislocation. But there are risks that the Bank of Japan loses control over longer-term yields... 5th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the bond market meltdown While government bond yields have stabilised today, their sharp rises over recent weeks are increasingly concerning. We think there are four key observations to make at this point. 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China is holding on to its dollars Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Rapid Response What to make of the yen intervention Whether or not Japan's Ministry of Finance confirms that it intervened in the foreign exchange market today, the direction the currency moves over the coming months will be determined primarily by... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Australian bonds could yet decouple from US Treasuries We think that the yields of Australian long-term sovereign bonds will fall by a bit less than those of US Treasuries over the next couple of years, even though they’ve moved in lockstep lately. But... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of tighter policy on financial stability By putting upward pressure on JGB yields and the yen, tighter monetary policy could lead to falls in the value of bonds and overseas assets held by Japanese investors. Insurance companies and pension... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not see the new year The higher-for-longer narrative took hold over the third quarter, pushing bonds and equities down in most markets. But we doubt that this narrative will last. We expect bond markets to rebound as... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have only been undermined a little by the big rise in the yields of “safe” assets in recent months. We think that the valuations of risky assets may fall a bit more in... 2nd October 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Assessing the round trip in euro-zone bond markets While concerns about euro-zone public finances put upward pressure on bond yields there, the outlook for inflation will probably remain the focus for investors. In our view, that means bond yields in... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read