Capital Daily Why US equities may continue to outshine corporate bonds Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curves may normalise next year as rate cuts begin We think that yield curves across Europe and the US will “disinvert” next year, as central banks shift towards easing monetary policy. 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s going on in Asia’s bond and FX markets? We think the yields of long-dated local-currency government bonds in Asia will generally fall further by the end of next year, and that most regional currencies will continue to make ground against... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Economics to keep trumping politics in EZ markets While the Freedom Party’s victory in the Dutch parliamentary election was a big surprise, there is in our view only a very small probability that it will have a substantial impact on financial markets... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal health and the outlook for the euro-zone’s bond markets We continue to forecast a small fall in euro-zone yield spreads over Bunds in the next year or so. However, rising risks to the upside in recent months and differences in fiscal positions between... 22nd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Government debt sustainability back under the spotlight Shifts in the long-term outlook for interest rates relative to GDP growth have left the fiscal position in most developed economies looking more precarious. Unless governments manage to reduce their... 21st November 2023 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Early thoughts on Mileinomics & market implications Victory for maverick Javier Milei in Argentina’s presidential election means the country is about to embark on yet another economic experiment. While it is hard to say what that will bring for its... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Falling yields don’t guarantee ‘growth’ outperformance ‘Growth’ stocks have held up well vis-à-vis ‘value’ stocks this year despite the surge in real yields. But relatively optimistic earnings expectations for growth stocks may prevent them from steaming... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US/China relationship and global financial markets With a lot of pessimism seemingly already priced in to China’s “risky” assets, we suspect any further thawing in US/China relations could give them a boost. But we think their longer-term outlook is... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of volatility and risk premia Measures of cross-asset volatility and risk premia suggest that investors are increasingly discounting a fairly rosy market environment over the coming months. This leaves them at risk of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update A bright outlook for EM bonds, but not just yet We think that bonds in Emerging Markets (EMs) will struggle in the next couple of months. Further ahead, though, we expect their yields to fall, as both “risk-free” rates and spreads drop. In view of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Biggest post-CPI yield fall in a year may be just the start While past dips in the 10-year Treasury yield since inflation peaked proved to be short lived, we think that yield will continue to fall from here. 14th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Making sense of the ESG bond premium A lack of appropriate regulation may be one reason why ESG bond issuance has slowed over recent years, and why the premium that investors are willing to pay for ESG bonds over conventional bonds has... 14th November 2023 · 15 mins read
