Capital Daily More signs that UST yields may reverse course soon Long-term Treasury yields have risen to new cyclical highs despite a generally weak global economic backdrop. Short-term “technical” indicators also suggest to us the surge in yields may have run its... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: How much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies? 31st October 2023, 8:00AM GMT In light of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement this today, our Asia team hosted an online briefing all about the impact of rising bond yields on Asia’s economies and markets.
Capital Daily Inflation uncertainty and Treasury term premia Concerns over supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market seem to be a key factor pushing up Treasury term premia. But we think rising inflation uncertainty among investors has also played a part. 23rd October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water amid growing turbulence Amid the surge in Treasury yields and the fall in global equities, the US dollar seems set (somewhat surprisingly) to end the week broadly unchanged. In our view, the key reason the dollar has failed... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields, credit spreads and financial conditions US financial conditions may soon tighten further, as the economy slows and credit spreads rise. But, by then, the 10-year Treasury yield may be falling. 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What our revised forecasts for Treasuries imply for US equities Although we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield between now and the end of 2025, we aren’t inclined to change our upbeat projection for the S&P 500 over this period. This is... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative performance of assets in China & the US We think both the recent outperformance of China’s sovereign bonds relative to those in the US and the underperformance of its equities will end – and may even reverse somewhat – in the near future... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bank equities may not recover much in the near term Big banks in the US have reported quite strong earnings in Q3 but, given our pessimistic view of the economy there, we doubt that their stocks will outperform much in the next couple of months. 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of our US dollar forecast While the global backdrop continues to favour the US dollar, it's rally has stalled in recent weeks and we think that, absent a major deterioration in risk sentiment, the greenback will struggle to... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Raising our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield We still expect the 10-year Treasury yield to fall in the coming quarters. But we’ve revised up our projections for that yield from now to end of 2025, and now think it will reach its cyclical low in... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s economic momentum may help its struggling equities We think China’s improving economy may help stop the fall in the country’s stock markets, and see them outperform those of the US for a bit. 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Cyclically higher for shorter; structurally higher for longer We think equilibrium real policy rates in advanced economies will continue to rise over the next decade or so. That has profound implications for government bond yields and risky asset valuations. 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Event Drop-In: r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era 31st October 2023, 12:30PM GMT What will a world of structurally higher interest rates look like? How will central bank behaviour change in the coming years? What will this mean for market returns?
Capital Daily Could earnings give the S&P 500 a lift? We don’t expect a rise in earnings expectations to give the S&P 500 much of a near-term boost, but think the picture is more positive further ahead. 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Global risks and the outlook for EM dollar sovereign bonds We think the macroeconomic environment will continue to play the key role in the outlook for emerging markets (EM) dollar-denominated sovereign bonds this year and next. Despite country-specific risks... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
