Capital Daily We don’t think US disinflation will prevent a drop in US equities The weaker US inflation data released today have bolstered our view that Treasury yields will drop a bit between now and the end of next year. But we still think that growing fears of a recession will... 13th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in DM government bond is mostly behind us With nominal bond yields having fallen considerably over the past month, we think there is now less scope for developed market government bonds to rally over the next couple of years. 12th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US corporate bond spreads will widen again Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession. 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another look at the stock-bond correlation The positive correlation between the prices of stocks and bonds that has defined much of this year in financial markets may be starting to weaken. Our sense is that this shift back towards the... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Energy stocks may hold up better than oil prices suggest Even if oil prices don’t rebound substantially in the near term, we doubt developed market equities in the energy sector will reverse course and underperform the rest of the stock market next year. In... 9th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX markets calm ahead of central bank meetings & US CPI Even after a small boost following the release of US PPI data today, the US dollar seems set to end this “data-light” week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. By contrast, we suspect next... 9th December 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury rally may almost have run its course We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Bank of Canada points to widening US-Canada yield gap We think the yield gap between 10-year US Treasuries and Canadian Government Bonds will remain wide next year, as we expect the Bank of Canada is nearing an early end of its hiking cycle and will... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily What China’s re-opening could mean for global markets An accelerated re-opening of China’s economy wouldn’t necessarily be good for global bonds and equities if it stoked inflation in developed markets. But a more gradual re-opening could be more benign... 7th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks mounting as 2023 approaches Global risk appetite has improved in recent weeks, easing some of the strains in EMs. But economic and financial vulnerabilities in EMs are larger going into 2023 than they were at this point last... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
