Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs picked up sharply over the past month amidst improved investor risk appetite and a depreciating US dollar. But there are signs in the very latest data points that... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A few reasons for caution on the China rally While investors in Chinese equities have had some more reasons to cheer of late, we doubt that they will reverse much more than a small fraction of their earlier underperformance relative to US stocks... 5th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar’s struggles continue on Powell’s mixed messages Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction... 2nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payroll numbers don’t change our view of Treasuries We still think that the 10-year Treasury yield will end next year lower than it is now, despite the latest US employment data. 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of European equities may be short-lived Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate... 2nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the equity rally will run out of steam The upbeat market reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech last night topped off a storming November for equity markets. But the rally in equities has generally taken a breather today after a... 1st December 2022 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Zero-COVID’s end might not be panacea for China’s markets Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar skids on rebound in risk sentiment Renewed optimism in global markets – in large part tied to hopes for a Fed “pivot” – pushed the US dollar down against most major currencies last month. But with a global recession on the horizon, we... 1st December 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Squaring yield curve inversion with the rally in risky assets While the progressive inversion of the Treasury yield curve may seem inconsistent with the recent rebound in risky assets in the US, they had already discounted some bad news about the economy... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained turnaround in China’s markets probably still some way off We continue to think that recent optimism around the prospects for China’s economy and financial markets will founder. 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may not fall much more given outlook for inflation Although Bund yields have fallen today amid early signs that inflation may have peaked in the euro-zone, we don’t expect those yields to continue to drop sharply given only a gradual decline in core... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update More reasons why we don’t think the dollar has peaked (yet) Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
