Global Markets Update How equities might fare as tightening cycles end Although monetary tightening has been a drag on equities over the past year or so, we don’t think the end of rate hikes means the stock market is set for big gains. 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Debt ceiling debacle threatens renewed turmoil While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries... 18th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily US mega-cap stocks are in need of some more friends The S&P 500 has posted solid gains in 2023, but that has largely been due to surges in a few “mega-cap” stocks. This is a trend that we doubt can continue for very much longer. 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update QT effects dwarfed by influence of past rate hikes Any impact of QT has so far been modest and swamped by the effects of higher policy rates. Asset disposals might put some upward pressure on yields in the euro-zone in the near term, but the process... 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Japanese equities may fall back from the front of the pack We think the recent outperformance of Japan’s equities over those in the US and other developed markets (DM) will reverse before long, as the yen strengthens against the US dollar. 17th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What more disappointing China data means for its markets The “China re-opening” narrative has been on life support for some time, and another round of weaker-than-expected economic data out of the Middle Kingdom adds to our sense that China’s economy and... 16th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily The rand ain’t what it used to be The sharp drop in the South African rand this week is in large part driven by one-off factors, including the news that the country’s government may have supplied arms to Russia and thereby put itself... 12th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think Gilts are poised to outperform We think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts in the UK next year. If we’re correct, that could propel Gilts to the top of the class for local-currency returns over the... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May 2023) This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monitor publications. 12th May 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Why we continue to think sterling will depreciate We doubt sterling’s strong run will continue; we still think that an economic downturn in the UK and other advanced economies will lead to renewed downward pressure on sterling later this year. 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoE gives little away, but we still expect lower gilt yields While we would not be surprised if the Bank of England raises rates by a bit more in the coming months, we think investors are underestimating the scope for rate cuts further ahead. We expect this to... 11th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads still look too low to us With credit conditions tightening and, in our view, recessions looming in the US and other advanced economies, we think it is only a matter of time before corporate credit spreads widen. 9th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We still think Treasury yields and the S&P 500 will fall this year Despite today’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, we continue to think that the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the next couple of quarters. 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Banking turmoil continues to hamstring the US dollar Despite a bumper week for economic data, currency markets remain in limbo. While the dollar regained some ground today after a(nother) stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, it has been... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pound standing to attention for King’s Coronation You’d be forgiven for thinking that the pound has been caught up in the wave of Britishness ahead of the King’s Coronation this weekend. But instead the rise to a 12-month high of $1.26 has been... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
