FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar marches on thanks to “higher for longer” For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive... 26th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Revising up our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield Higher risk premia on sterling-denominated assets, which coincided with last September’s disastrous “mini-budget”, have typically long since evaporated. The recent increase in Gilt yields – to levels... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further Despite the recent slowdown in China’s reopening recovery, we don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further against the US dollar. Yield differentials should begin to tilt back in favour of the... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Crisis risks loom for Turkey’s financial markets President Erdogan looks set to secure victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election on 28th May. This Update sets out how we think this would play out in Turkey’s financial markets... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: The case for EM equity outperformance 1685628000 During our latest monthly dive into the big themes in emerging markets, the team discussed the macro and market forces that could see EM equities breaking their recent run of underperformance again
Global Markets Update Narrow stock market rallies have rarely lasted long Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this year’s rally in US equities is just how narrow it has been. We think history suggests that this bodes poorly for the S&P 500’s prospects over the rest of... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not keep long-dated E-Z yields high The “higher for longer” story seems more plausible to us in the euro-zone than in the US, but we don’t think it will stop long-dated government bond yields from eventually falling there. 23rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Resilience of activity won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of the April activity data and apparent stabilisation in housing have raised hopes that a recession may yet be avoided this year. That said, forward-looking indicators suggest that the... 23rd May 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Economy taking a back seat for the US stock market for now The recent performance of sectors within the S&P 500 is hard to square with either the economic outlook or TIPS yields. We suspect it reflects shifts in sentiment around the tech sector, which may... 22nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Policymakers can breathe easier on inflation The past month has brought some encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer price inflation dropped sharply in April to an 18-month low, keeping the headline rate comfortably within the RBI’s 2... 22nd May 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making the case for EM equities Emerging market equities have typically outperformed their developed market counterparts after US recessions. While we don’t foresee them replicating the sort of outperformance seen after the early... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the potential return of “higher for longer” We suspect a return of “higher for longer” in markets would be worse for short-dated Treasuries than long-dated ones, at least in the near term. 19th May 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Rising yields push dollar higher ahead of Powell comments The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies amid the prospect of policy rates in developed markets (DM) remaining “higher for longer”. While this week’s rise in DM... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
