Capital Daily Will Latin American equities keep outperforming? Latin American equities have, in US dollar terms, fared even better than their US peers so far this year. We think that their outperformance will be interrupted by the global “risk-off” environment we... 27th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The fall and fall of the Swedish krona The rapid depreciation of the Swedish krona has pushed the currency down to its lowest ever level against the euro. Worse still, we do not think the krona is significantly below “fair value”, nor do... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update High Treasury volatility won’t prevent yields from falling Treasury volatility has fallen over recent weeks but remains high by historical standards, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it remained so over the rest of 2023 even after the Fed has concluded its... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Little sign of AI euphoria in corporate credit While the AI revolution has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for US equities today, we don’t think it changes the outlook for US corporate credit spreads much. We think spreads still look too... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update European equities: no AI, no party? Since bottoming out late last year, European and US equities have fared comparably in local-currency terms, and European stocks have even outperformed in dollar terms. Looking ahead, however, we think... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our S&P 500 forecasts We don’t think growing enthusiasm about AI will be enough to stop the S&P 500 from declining if, as we expect, the US economy falls into recession later this year. Nonetheless, we now think the index... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of even more inverted yield curves The greater inversion of yield curves, in response to the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, suggests to us the strength of equities won’t last. 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The S&P 500’s rally: 1995 or 2000? While the lessons from the late-1990s suggest that euphoria over AI could support the stock market for quite a while, especially in the US, we still think that weak economies will take some of the... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Has the dam burst for the dollar (and the yen)? The US dollar has fallen for a third week in a row, with the DXY closing in on its weakest level so far this year. But, although it is increasingly challenged by the current “risk-on” environment, we... 16th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bubbles, recessions, & AI We now suspect growing euphoria over AI will drive the S&P 500 to a significantly higher level than we had previously forecast by the end of next year. In the meantime, though, we still think a mild... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Growing pains in the gilt, mortgage and rental markets The surge in gilt yields above the level reached after the Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget last September has pushed mortgage rates even higher and illustrates that most of the drag on real activity and... 16th June 2023 · 10 mins read
