FX Markets Update The Mexican “super peso” looks poised for a sharp fall The Mexican peso’s relentless rise against the US dollar and most other major currencies is increasingly at odds with macroeconomic fundamentals. We think the peso is vulnerable to an abrupt fall over... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the jump in China’s stock market Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England – Another 50bps hike or back to 25bps? 1691071200 Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB.
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs, Spanish politics, and bond yields Euro-zone government bond yields have fallen further following the release of disappointing PMIs today. Given our pessimistic view of the economy, we suspect that they will generally end the year a... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back; disinflation points to sterling peak The US dollar has rebounded over the past two days and looks set to unwind much of last week’s fall. With US data somewhat mixed, much of this rebound in the greenback seems to have been driven by a... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily JPY & MXN: trading places We expect the fortunes of the Japanese yen and Mexican peso – which have both been outliers in different ways lately – to soon reverse, as souring risk appetite unwinds some “carry trade” and their... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities: near-term gain, long-term pain China’s stock market has underperformed over recent months and investors once again seem to be discounting a lot of bad news. We think this pessimism is slightly overdone and that Chinese equities... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of our forecast for a stronger dollar While recent data suggest the US in on a path towards disinflation and a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Fed, we continue to think that the dollar will rebound in the second half of... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (2023 Q3) While the US dollar has fallen against most currencies since the start of the year, our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are broadly unchanged, leaving it only somewhat overvalued in our... 21st July 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The US yield curve could stay inverted for a while yet The Treasury yield curve has been inverted for a long time by past standards, but we think it could remain so until next year even if there’s a recession in the interim. 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US bank stocks may start catching up, but not just yet Given our view that economic growth will disappoint, we doubt that the positive mood accompanying US banks’ earnings reports will endure over the rest of 2023. But when the outlook brightens, we... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The US stock market’s been flying high, but has it earned it? As the second quarter US reporting season gets into full swing, it’s easy to lose sight of the big picture: the peak-to-trough drawdown in earnings per share (EPS) from last year has not only been... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall Despite today’s big reaction in markets in the UK to better-than-expected inflation news, we still think investors are overestimating the peak in interest rates there and underestimating how much... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Market optimism may have gone too far All is well in the US economy – at least according to financial markets. But we think investors are underestimating the chance of an economic slowdown. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
