Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect Treasury yields to fall We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in 10-year JGB yield no surprise given global trend Although the 10-year JGB yield has gradually been creeping up towards the new 1% ceiling tolerated by the BoJ, this is no surprise given a broad-based rise in 10-year sovereign yields elsewhere... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar keeps edging higher on China fears & US yield surge The US dollar has continued to grind higher, with the DXY index on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the back of more bad news out of China, continued pressure on risk sentiment, and a new... 18th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Still far from an unsustainable US stock market valuation Although the US stock market has started to come under pressure from rising Treasury yields, the valuation of equities relative to government bonds is still a long way from being as stretched as it... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed looks to be done… so why aren’t Treasury yields? The continued rise in Treasury yields, following what may well have been the Fed’s final interest rate hike last month, contrasts with the experience of recent tightening cycles. But we still expect... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the IT sector’s recent stumble The S&P 500 IT sector has struggled this month amid rising bond yields and waning enthusiasm for AI. While we think the sector may fall further this year in absolute terms, we still project it to... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed disinflation paths, but US and UK yields may both fall Although disinflation in the UK is lagging that in the US, we expect yields in both places to fall this year. And we think that Gilt yields are set to fall by a bit more than Treasury yields through... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession across the second half of the year. But with... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The market implications of China’s economic struggles The difficulties facing China’s economy and financial system continue to dominate much of the headlines. So far, the gloom has not made a major dent in the optimism reflected in global markets... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What Country Garden wilting means for China’s equities We don’t think the ongoing troubles in China’s property sector mark the beginnings of a financial crisis, but do expect them to be a drag on returns from the country’s stock market over time. 14th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Troubled times continue for the yen and the renminbi With more poor economic data out of China and US yields again threatening to push towards new highs, it is little wonder that the yen and the renminbi have come under renewed pressure. While we still... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Soft landing” hopes boost dollar despite soft CPI report In spite of last week’s weak US payrolls report and this week’s soft CPI data, the dollar has, on net, risen against all other major currencies this week. This may be partly a result of hawkish... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
